Archives : SENSEX CLIMBS TO 17000 - 01/10/2009.
SENSEX CLIMBS TO 17000 - 01/10/2009.

  

Sensex has finally managed to close above 17000 after a gap of more than 15 months. The rally from 8000 to 17000 has been breath taking to say the least as the Sensex saw a vertical rise of 110% within a span of 6 months. If we compare the last time when the Sensex went from 8000 to 17000, it took more then 23 months. This amazing rally has come on the back of strong global inflows in our markets based on various relief and stimulus packages announced by the governments worldwide. The indecisiveness showed by the Sensex and Nifty in the last week when it formed a Doji, was overcome when both the indices formed a Bullish Opening White Marubuzo.

 



SENSEX CLIMBS TO 17000 - 01/10/2009.

Sensex has finally managed to close above 17000 after a gap of more than 15 months. The rally from 8000 to 17000 has been breath taking to say the least as the Sensex saw a vertical rise of 110% within a span of 6 months. If we compare the last time when the Sensex went from 8000 to 17000, it took more then 23 months. This amazing rally has come on the back of strong global inflows in our markets based on various relief and stimulus packages announced by the governments worldwide. The indecisiveness showed by the Sensex and Nifty in the last week when it formed a Doji, was overcome when both the indices formed a Bullish Opening White Marubuzo.

  • SENSEX.

The Sensex opened at 16829, made a high of 17195, made a low of 16802 and closed the week at 17134. The weekly gain was 441 points.

 

The Sensex has formed a small black body on the daily charts and Bullish Opening White Marubuzo on the weekly charts.

 

The Sensex has formed a Bullish formation and the target for this is 17392. If we consider Sensex breakout of a Rising Wedge, then the Sensex can retrace the entire fall and for that the target is 17735.

 

If we consider the entire fall from 21206-7697 then the Sensex has already crossed the 61.8% retracement level which was at 16045. Now the next Fibonacci retracement target is at 78.6% of the previous fall and is at 18315.

 In the current rise, it has been observed that the market has a tendency to consolidate before rising further. The uptrend will remain intact as long as the Trendline support of 16347 is not breached. 

The oscillators like MACD & ROC continue with their Buy signal. But the only point of concern remains the RSI, which is now in the overbought zone at 72. The Money Flow Index continues to show negative divergence and hence the need to be cautious.

For the week ahead Sensex will face resistance at 17392-17521-17735 and support will be at 16802-16610-16494. 

  • NIFTY.

The Nifty opened at 4959, made a high of 5110, made a low of 4959 and closed the week at 5083. The weekly gain was 125 points.

 

Nifty has formed a Doji on the daily charts showing indecision. On the weekly charts Nifty has formed a Bullish Opening White Marubuzo on the weekly charts.

 

The Nifty has formed a Bullish formation and the target for this is 5168. If we consider Nifty breakout of an Ascending Triangle, then the Nifty can retrace the entire fall and for that the target is 5368.

 

If we consider the entire fall from 6357-2252 then the Nifty has already crossed the 61.8% retracement level which was at 4789. Now the next Fibonacci retracement target is at 78.6% of the previous fall and is at 5478.

 In the current rise, it has been observed that the market has a tendency to consolidate before rising further. The uptrend will remain intact as long as the Trendline support of 4820 is not breached. 

The oscillators like MACD & ROC continue with their Buy signal. But the only point of concern remains the RSI, which is now in the overbought zone at 72. The Money Flow Index continues to show negative divergence and hence the need to be cautious

 

The O.I. PCR has again inflated to 1.57, though not overbought but certainly a point of concern. Strong PUT writing is visible at the strikes of 4900 and 4700 which should act as strong supports. CALL writing is seen at strikes of 5100 and 5300 which should act as strong resistances.

 For the week ahead Nifty will face resistance at 5168-5298-5368 and support will be at 4957-4870-4783.

  • INDEX LEVELS:
 S3S2S1CLOSER1R2R3
Nifty4783487049575083516852985368
Sensex16494166101680217134173921752117735

  • LAST WEEKS RECOMMENDATIONS. 
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    ProfitRs.1,04,325

  • THIS WEEK’S RECOMMENDATIONS: 
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  • WATCH OUT FOR:

IDFC

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